Dr. Alexandra von Bernstorff, managing partner at Luxcara, spoke to Tamarindo about the company’s green hydrogen priority projects, shifting power-to-X market sentiment, and the prospects for green hydrogen by 2035.
In 2025, Luxcara intends to set a new precedent for investments in green hydrogen infrastructure by making our latest hydrogen investment, the 20 MW Bodø Project, one of the very first green hydrogen initiatives in Europe to enable bank financing. We are focusing on structuring a non-recourse project financing solution. We are confident that it is possible because of the 15-year Hydrogen Purchase Agreement in place with Torghatten Nord for the public ferry connection. FID is taken with subsidy and equity funding in place, and we are now initiating the formal process to include lenders, experiencing strong financing interest from banks already.
At Luxcara, we specialise in energy transition investments and have witnessed numerous cycles of enthusiasm and scepticism in the sector.
One thing remains clear: the energy transition is not optional. It is essential for economic security, climate change mitigation, and long-term sustainability. Within this transition, hydrogen plays a crucial role – but only when approached with a realistic, well-structured investment perspective.
A few years ago, hydrogen was at the peak of its hype. Many projects were proposed without fully considering key challenges such as permitting, construction, system integration, and securing long-term off-take agreements. This doesn’t mean that hydrogen lacks a future. It simply means that a selective, well-informed approach is necessary. As with any investment, not every project is inherently viable. Success depends on a thorough evaluation of individual opportunities.
In fact, 2024 has not been a bad year for hydrogen at all. Despite shifting market sentiment, we reached a final investment decision on two hydrogen projects, and we were not the only ones. The difference now is that the hype around unrealistic projects and unsustainable business models has faded. That, in itself, is a positive development. A more grounded approach to hydrogen investment will lead to projects that are truly impactful and commercially sound, which is ultimately what the energy transition needs.
We don’t view power-to-X investment through the lens of specific countries but rather through the quality of individual opportunities. The success of a project depends on the right combination of factors: permitting conditions, grid infrastructure, access to competitive green power, and a strong off-take strategy. No single country excels in all these aspects at once. Each market has its strengths and challenges.
For us, the focus remains on assessing individual projects rather than making broad country-level bets. When a project has the right fundamentals and makes financial sense, that’s where we see the real investment potential.
We see a challenge in the ability to offer a cost competitive product that can compete with the fossil-based alternative. There is undoubtably demand for the products if they were more cost competitive. From a technical standpoint, standardisation is a significant challenge that can unlock large cost savings. Unlike the renewables industry, the power-to-X sector faces longer development periods and resource constraints that hinder the overall market ramp-up.
Economically, the stringent regulations around Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin in countries with less than 90% renewable electricity mix result in higher than necessary LCoH (levelised cost of hydrogen) during the market ramp-up phase. Addressing these regulatory and standardisation issues is crucial for the sector’s growth.
We have always been ahead of the curve in the energy transition. Twenty years ago, when few believed that solar and wind could become major power sources, the management team of Luxcara was already investing in them. Ten years ago, we were among the first to focus on power purchase agreements at a time when many considered them financially unviable. Today, both are mainstream.
We see the hydrogen market following a similar path. Right now, it is new, complex, and not yet fully integrated into the mainstream energy system. It requires specialists like us to navigate the challenges and drive the first wave of viable projects. But by 2035, hydrogen and Power-to-X will no longer be questioned—they will be an established, indispensable part of the global energy mix. The market will have scaled, business models will be proven, and discussions will have shifted from whether hydrogen works to how best to optimize and expand it.
For us, the challenge has never been about whether an energy solution is mainstream today. It’s about recognizing what will be mainstream tomorrow and making smart, forward-looking investments to get there. Hydrogen has a future but be realistic that it is complex.
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